By the Connect Express Team, Glendale, AZ. Published November 2, 2026.
Shippers paid a lot more to move truck freight this summer, even though they moved about the same amount of it. The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index for the third quarter of 2026, released October 29, shows shipper spending up 32.1% from a year earlier while national shipment volume rose just 0.5%. The Southwest region posted the biggest jump of any region: spending up 51.6% year over year. For Phoenix and Glendale shippers planning 2027 freight budgets, that gap between volume and cost is the number to watch.
What the Q3 Index Shows
According to U.S. Bank, shipper spending rose 5.2% from the second quarter and 32.1% from the third quarter of 2025. That is the largest annual increase since 2021. Shipments rose 0.4% from the prior quarter and 0.5% from a year ago, the first time since 2021 that national volume grew on both measures. The index covers domestic truckload and less-than-truckload freight and is based on freight payments U.S. Bank processes.
U.S. Bank points to three drivers: tighter carrier capacity, rising rates, and diesel prices that climbed above $6.50 per gallon nationally. Bob Costello, chief economist at the American Trucking Associations, said in the release that “shippers are spending substantially more to move essentially the same amount of freight.”
The Southwest Saw the Sharpest Increase
Every region paid more, but not by the same amount. Year over year, spending rose 51.6% in the Southwest, 32.7% in the Southeast, 31.1% in the West, 25.4% in the Northeast and 25.3% in the Midwest. Southwest shipments rose 2.9% from the second quarter but were still 2.6% below a year earlier. West shipments fell 3.1% from the second quarter, and U.S. Bank noted that California diesel reached $8.25 per gallon in late September.
U.S. Bank said the Southwest increase reflects “especially tight capacity as enforcement actions reduced the availability of drivers hauling domestic loads.” Its second-quarter report had already flagged English language proficiency enforcement and closer review of cross-border operating rules, including cabotage by Mexican B-1 drivers, as factors that may be most visible in the Southwest because of its role in cross-border freight. Border disruptions like the recent Mexico trucker strike are part of the same picture.
What It Means for Phoenix and Glendale Shippers
Arizona freight moves on both sides of that split. Loads heading west to California deal with high fuel costs, and loads tied to the border and Texas compete for tighter capacity. When spending climbs while volume stays flat, the cost is coming from capacity and fuel, not from more freight. That usually means less room to shop a load at the last minute and more weight on how well a shipper plans.
Fuel is a large part of the story. Our weekly diesel price watch for Arizona tracks the EIA numbers each week, and fuel surcharges follow them.
What Shippers Can Do Now
- Plan budgets on cost per load, not on volume alone. Flat volume did not mean flat spend this year.
- Give carriers more lead time on regular freight, and keep pickup and delivery windows reliable so trucks are not tied up at the dock.
- Look at your repeat lanes. Steady, predictable freight on the best freight lanes for consistent capacity is easier to cover, and some shippers move it to dedicated trucking lanes.
- Review how fuel surcharges are calculated in your agreements so a diesel move does not come as a surprise.
Shipping out of the Valley? See our Phoenix trucking page, call Connect Express at 480-401-1998, email admin@connectexpressllc.com, or visit us at 5701 W Maryland Ave, Glendale, AZ 85301.
